股利困惑是對組織股利支付的一種澄清，也是投資者對股利的一種態度。股東習慣於冒險投資於股票，股票和股息可能是這種風險的回報(貝克，2009)。股利是促使他人以最大價格購買股票的重要激勵因素。投資者關註股息，因為他們試圖通過在適當的時候以最高價格出售股票來獲得良好的利潤(Nguyen and Nguyen, 2015)。正如布萊克教授所說，市場專家仍然對投資者的特點和股息支付的影響感到困惑。在這方面，Miller和Modigliani (M&M)在1961年的方法可以借鑒，得出結論認為股息對股東財產的影響最小。
可能發生的情況是，投資者有興趣推遲一年出售他們的股票，以使d2代表的股票價值最大化(Babenko, Tserlukevich & Vedrashko, 2012)。因此，p2 p3 p4將出現在場景中，它將創建一個永無休止的無限進程Pn (n表示無限)。方程表示為:
股利的確定性和不確定性應按一個組織的現金流量來假設。資本市場的假設也是股東做出完美決策的一個關鍵因素(Allen & Michaely, n.d.)。
Xt – t時段的現金流量
Ft – t時段產生的數量
(1 + i)ΔFt——增量重新付款
Dividend puzzle is nothing but a clarification of dividend payment by the organizations and also approach of investors towards dividend. Shareholders use to take risk investing in stocks and shares and dividend could be a return of that risk (Baker, 2009). Dividend is an important motivational factor which forces other to buy shares with maximized price. Investors are focused to the dividends as they try to secure a good profit by selling the shares at proper time with maximum price value (Nguyen and Nguyen, 2015). As per Professor Black, still market experts are confused about the characteristics of investors and the impact of dividend payment. In this regards, the approaches of Miller and Modigliani (M&M) in 1961 could be referred what concludes the least impact of dividend on shareholders property.
The cash flow with a proper time bracket is needed to be measured to determine the total asset valuation of an organization. In case of common shares, the cash flow of an organization should be determined by the impact of dividend and the amount of stock sales value (Harris, 2011). If someone is interested to own a common stock share, then he needs to plan it before one year. It can be represented by below mentioned formula:
P1 – represents the previously hold share
P0- represents the projected amount payable for shares as per recent valuation
D1- represents the dividend what is assumed to be generated end of the year.
It might happen that the investors are interested to postpone the selling of their shares for a year to maximize the share values which will be represented by d2 here (Babenko, Tserlukevich & Vedrashko, 2012). Hence, p2, p3, p4 will come into the scenario and it will create a never ending infinite process Pn (n represents infinite). The equation will be represented as:
P0- represents the adjusted cash flow for future share value pricing.
The impact of dividend polices on owner’s wealth:
Certainty and uncertainty of dividends should be assumed as per cash flows of an organization. The assumption of capital market is also a key factor to have a perfect decision for the shareholders (Allen & Michaely, n.d.).
In case of a new organization, the leverage and dividend policies will have a strong impact on the capital structure of it. It can be portrayed with a formula:
S0 – Dividend pricing of previously hold stock which are preferred to be at t=0,
Dt- Dividend value that has been cleared at time period of t to t=0,
i – Current rate of interest
It – Invested amount at t time period
Xt – Cash flow at t time period
Ft – Amount generated at t time period
T – Future time period of fund liquidation
Solving for Dt and plugging into Eq. 5 yields
and simplifies to,
ΔFt. = Incremental amount
(1+i)ΔFt- – Incremental re payment
In other hand, uncertainty is also included with such dividend policies. It is affected by improper market assumptions also. Although investors have expected a good profitability or return through dividend policies, it could be hampered due to risk taking investment on different projects (Lease, 2000).